Did Highland Park take its neighbours’ shoppers? The evidence four years on

In June 2022 President Mnangagwa opened the first phase of Highland Park, a US$20m centre (as reported) on the corner of ED Mnangagwa and Arcturus roads in Highlands, anchored by Pick n Pay. Within a short drive sit Chisipite, Kamfinsa, Newlands, Ballantyne Park, Rhodesville and the centres of Greendale, each with its own supermarket, landlord and loyal regulars.

Ask around Harare's property market and you will hear that Highland Park took their shoppers. Two years after it opened, Chisipite Shopping Centre was reported to be closing for a year-long rebuild. For a landlord deciding whether to refurbish, a retailer weighing a lease, or a bank asked to fund the next new centre in the eastern suburbs, the question matters: does a new mall take trade from the old ones nearby, or does it make its own?

Nobody publishes footfall or turnover for these centres, so we measured what can be measured from outside. For every home in the area we modelled which centre is nearest by road, with and without Highland Park, and counted the people involved. We then read the satellite record of eleven car parks since 2017, before and after June 2022, against benchmark centres beyond Highland Park's reach. And we set both against what Highland Park's owner has reported about its tenants and trade.

The answer is not the one most people expect, and it says something useful about what a suburban centre in Harare now has to offer.