The expected boom of Energy Independence in South Africa

Loadshedding in South Africa has been intense with the situation deteriorating over time. In the last 5 years alone, load shedding has gone from 127 hours in 2018 to 1,949 hours in 2022. In the context of the energy supply, there is a 4 to 6 Gigawatt (GW) energy supply gap contributing to the load shedding.

The current electricity situation

The energy mix for South Africa is predominantly thermal with coal-fired power generation contributing an installed capacity of 39.3GW or 73% of the total power production in the country. But these coal-fired power stations have degraded and are close to their shelf life. They can no longer operate at full capacity reducing the annual energy availability of coal-fired generators to 53%.

Tariffs have also taken a very steep rise from 2007 to date with the rise in electricity tariffs leapfrogging the rate of inflation in South Africa. Inflation grew by 134% between 2007 and 2021 whilst Eskom tariffs grew by 753% in the same period. What this means is the increase in electricity tariffs in dollar terms has been much higher than the rate of inflation.

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