Mozambique's next export base: Afungi measured, and the gap Mozal leaves
Mozal stopped in March 2026 and Mozambique LNG restarted at Afungi in January. How far has the Afungi site come since 2017, what did Mozal carry in Mozambique's exports, and how much LNG replaces it, and when?
14 November 2026 · Energy, Manufacturing, Logistics · Read the article on dotzedw.com
We measured cleared and built ground at the Mozambique LNG site on the Afungi peninsula on every clear Sentinel-2 pass since 2017, through the clearing, the stoppage after the 2021 attack on Palma, and the restart.
This page holds the site year by year, Mozambique's largest exports in 2024 and 2019, and the arithmetic of how much LNG it takes to replace Mozal's aluminium.
What members get
- Cleared and built ground at Afungi, year by year since 2017, for the core of the site and the wider area
- Dry-season images of the site in 2017, 2020, 2023 and 2026
- Mozambique's largest exports in 2024 and 2019, with Mozal's inputs
- The LNG equivalent of Mozal's exports, worked through, and a download
This study is part of the Individual plan
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How we did it
Every Sentinel-2 image of the Afungi peninsula since January 2017 with most of it clear; a 20 m pixel counts as cleared or built in a year when it is bare (low vegetation index, not water) in at least 60% of that year's clear passes. The core of the site is a 45 km² box around the airstrip, camps, plant platforms and marine works; Palma town is outside it. Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2017 to 2026.
Exports and imports by product: CEPII BACI (from UN Comtrade) via the Insights Centre, 2019 and 2024.
LNG equivalent: the rise in Mozambique's gas exports from 2019 to 2024 divided by the capacity of Eni's Coral Sul (3.4 Mt a year, first cargo November 2022, as reported); Mozal's aluminium exports divided by that. At 2024 prices; an estimate.
What this cannot tell you
- At 10 to 20 m the images show cleared and covered ground, not what is finished on it; offshore works are out of sight.
- The LNG equivalent holds at 2024 prices only.
- Export values are not government revenue.